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Email the author (Login required) Climatology, trends, and atmospheric teleconnections of cold fronts in the Colombian Caribbean Sea from 1996 to 2021
Submited: 2024-12-03 14:08:27 | Published: 2025-06-30 18:48:33
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3856/vol53-issue3-fulltext-3368
Abstract
Cold fronts (Cfs) in the Caribbean Sea significantly impact the coastal regions of South America, generating extreme waves and causing severe damage, particularly during the winter season. This study aims to analyze the climatology, trends, and atmospheric teleconnections of Cfs in the Colombian Caribbean from 1996 to 2021, providing a comprehensive assessment of their frequency and variability. A total of 6 to 9 additional Cfs per year were identified compared to previous studies, indicating an increasing trend. The Dickey-Fuller test confirmed that the time series was non-stationary. In contrast, Kendall's test rejected the absence of a monotonic trend, supporting the existence of significant variations in Cfs occurrences. Regarding atmospheric teleconnections, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) showed weak correlations with Cfs frequencies. However, a stronger correlation was found with the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern (r = 0.42, P < 0.05) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (r = 0.48, P < 0.05), indicating a more pronounced influence of these large-scale circulation patterns. The frequency of Cfs activity was higher during El Niño events, the positive phase of the NAO and PNA, and the negative phase of the QBO, suggesting that these climate modes modulate the penetration of frontal systems into the region. Additionally, a detailed case study of a Cf event in January 2021 highlighted the development and progression of a baroclinic cyclone and its associated frontal system over the Colombian Caribbean. The system's core remained at low atmospheric levels, exhibiting intense westward flow and the presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream at upper levels, contributing to its intensification.
