Email this article (Login required)
Email the author (Login required) ENSO-linked catch anomalies and stock status of the Scomberomorus genus in northwestern Mexico
Submited: 2025-11-06 16:08:19 | Published: 2026-06-30 22:44:53
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3856/vol54-issue3-fulltext-3566
Abstract
Species of the genus Scomberomorus (S. sierra and S. concolor) are key resources for artisanal fisheries along the Mexican Pacific coast, with annual catches exceeding 25,000 t. However, information on their population dynamics, responses to ocean-atmospheric variability, and stock assessment remains limited. To address this gap, we analyzed 175,750 landing records alongside monthly Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) data. Temporal catch patterns were evaluated using sequential regime shift analysis (STARS). S. sierra exhibited two regimes: a relatively stable phase from 2000 to 2015, followed by elevated catches from 2016 to 2022, whereas S. concolor displayed three shifts: low catches (2000-2007), increased catches (2008-2021), and a marked increase in 2022. Cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis revealed contrasting responses to ONI, with S. sierra showing a positive relationship (r = 0.37, P = 0.04) and S. concolor showing a negative one (r = -0.40, P = 0.009). Stock status assessed using the catch maximum sustainable yield (CMSY) model. For S. sierra, the estimated maximum sustainable yield (MSY) was 4,873 t, the biomass at MSY (BMSY) was 14,144 t, and the fishing mortality at MSY (FMSY) was 0.34. Historical catches were generally sustainable, but recent increases create potential risks if they continue. For S. concolor, MSY was estimated at 5,951 t, BMSY was 17,275 t, and FMSY was 0.34; catches largely remained within sustainable limits, despite slightly exceeding MSY in 2022. Kobe plot analyses indicate S. sierra is approaching "overexploitation", whereas S. concolor remains within optimal limits. Highlight the need for active management strategies to ensure long-term sustainability.
